Is Planet Earth warming, cooling, or staying the same? I often
challenge advocates for climate alarmism: what is the temperature of the
planet today? Or we can use any specific day in recent years for which
data are available. We cannot know the temperature of the planet
thousands or millions of years ago if we cannot even measure it today.
Yes, the question is one single temperature of the entire
planet. Not the temperature in Nome, Alaska or Dallas, Texas, or
Sydney, Australia or in your home town. One single temperature reading
for the entire globe. To put it that way immediately sounds strange.
But if we don’t have a single temperature reading for the entire
planet for today, how can we say if the planet is getting warmer or
cooler or not changing at all? We cannot talk about the temperature in,
say, Geneva or London or New York City only. The question is whether
the entire planet is getting warmer, not isolated cities.
Some of us have forgotten basic statistics. Some avoided it in school. But most of us are vaguely familiar with the
random sampling process
used in public opinion surveys. We see opinion polls in the news all
the time. If we want to know how the USA’s estimated
153 million registered voters are
going to vote on Election Day, but we don’t want to actually ask all
153 million of them, we have to follow (not violate) strict statistical
methodologies for taking samples that are smaller than the entire
“universe” or total population.
So if we ask 1,000 people — the same 1,000 people every year — whom
they are planning to vote for, the results will be meaningless
hogwash. To be statistically valid, the sample must be random. Each
time. Not a random sample one time that is repeated year after
year. Each sample subset must be truly, honestly random. No games. No
phony adjustments. Every time. (It might be interesting to follow a
subset over time to investigate
why people decide whom to vote for. But that cannot be used to predict the entire population.)
We also know that when people actually vote, the survey predictions
are almost always wrong. For one thing, when we survey people, we are
not measuring how they are going to vote. We are sampling what they are
telling us, which is not the same thing.
The Earth is
196.9 million square miles of surface area. It is a sphere
24,901 miles in circumference. The
vast majority of the Earth is ocean, and in particular vast, mostly
untraveled waters like the Pacific and Southern Atlantic and the Arctic
Sea. The Earth is just unimaginably, stupendously big. Most of planet
Earth never sees any human presence, much less a weather station.
Another fatal flaw in climate alarmism is the failure to understand
that air moves. Air is made of gases, which by definition are not fixed
in place or shape, but flow freely. Alarmists try to evoke the image
of carbon dioxide as like a blanket. But carbon dioxide is not nailed
in place. It is free to move. When warmed, all gases move upward
towards outer space. Convection transports heat from the surface up to
the thin air, where jet airplanes cruise. Heat is radiated from there
out into space.
Air masses travel horizontally across the Earth. Remember the
polar vortex? Extremely
cold air sitting over the Arctic Circle is sometimes dislodged by air
currents and moved south into Canada or even the northern United
States. The weather gets extremely cold.
But the Earth did not change. Very cold air simply moved from one
place to another. The Earth is still the same temperature. The Arctic
got warmer, while North America got colder. The air moved. But
overall, the Earth did not change.
Probably all of us have experienced, as this author has watched, the
temperature drop 10 to 20 degrees within hours as a strong cold front
moves in. Even in the Bahamas, I have watched the temperature drop from
the 90s to the 70s in only three or four hours. For some reason, cold
fronts when arriving are typically more violent and abrupt than a return
to warmer weather.
Because the air is in constant motion, even a truly random sample of
Earth’s 196.9 million square miles of surface area would have to be
taken on the same day at the same time of day. Note that even in one
location, the swing from daytime temperatures to overnight temperatures
can be a 20- to 40-degree swing on the same day.
So why can’t we just measure certain cities and average their
changes? Because we are measuring weather, not climate. Unless we
measure the entire Earth we are just measuring air masses moving around,
changing temperatures.
We are told scientists have adjusted for these concerns (in some
mysterious magic way). But actual rocket scientists accidentally
crashed a lander into the planet Mars due to a mathematics mistake. So forgive us if we would just like to look over their math.
The reader can find attempts to measure the Earth’s one single temperature. For example, Carbon Brief’s “
Explainer: How do scientists measure global temperature?”
offers mental gymnastics. The hand is quicker than the eye. One with a
science education, not indoctrinated, will blow a gasket at the house
of cards.
To measure the Earth’s surface area of 196.9 million square miles,
there are about 10,000 weather stations on the planet, plus about 2,000
ships, airplanes, and ocean buoys. Remember: Those stations were
designed to measure local weather, not the planet.
The alarmists explain: “The temperature at each land and ocean
station is compared daily to what is ‘normal’ for that location and
time, typically the long-term average over a 30-year period.” But there
is no normal. Local anomalies are driven by weather patterns, such as
El Niño and the Polar Vortex. Many weather stations are at airports for
good reason. But aviation has changed over time from occasional
propeller planes to jet airplanes every few minutes. The expansion of
cities causes the heat island effect to artificially raise temperatures
at airports no longer out in the countryside.
So “[d]aily anomalies are averaged together over a whole
month. These are, in turn, used to work out temperature anomalies from
season-to-season and year-to-year.” This is nonsense. Then: “After
working out the annual temperature anomalies for each land or ocean
station, the next job for scientists is to divide the earth up into grid
boxes.”
NASA, they say, divides the world up into boxes of 2 degrees
longitude by 2 degrees latitude. That is a gigantic area — over 19,000
square miles — with enormous temperature variations within that
box. The other measurement schemes are 5 degrees by 5 degrees or over
119,000 square miles each. There is vastly different weather occurring
within each 119,000-square-mile box. Again, there are only 12,000
weather stations, including part-time ones on mobile craft for the
entire planet, unevenly focused too much on the “First World.”
From the time the thermometer was invented with a scientifically
valid scale comparable from one thermometer to another around 1850,
other than use as a novelty or hobbyist’s toy, and meticulous records
started (every day, the same time of day), measurements were
concentrated in Northwestern Europe and the Northeastern United
States. Gradually, decade by decade, driven largely by the rise of air
strips in World War I, the locations, geographic diversity, quantity,
and quality of weather stations changed over time. So even the
temperature records we have are not comparable across decades.
In short, you can claim to be able to measure the world’s temperature. But if you want to really do it — good luck.
https://nworeport.me/2020/03/10/what-is-earths-temperature-now-or-then/
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